Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
