Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
